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You're Watching Rates and Prices. You're Probably Not Watching This. | Let's Talk Home Mortgage

You’re Watching Rates and Prices. You’re Probably Not Watching This.

Mortgage rates and home prices get most of the attention. Homeowners insurance is the fourth number that can quietly change your full monthly payment, cash needed at closing, and the home you can comfortably afford.

The fourth
number

Your payment is not complete until insurance is in the math.

If you are working toward buying a home, I already know where your eyes have been: mortgage rates, home prices, and maybe the down payment number.

There is a fourth number most couples never look at until it lands on their desk: homeowners insurance.

I want to walk you through what is actually happening with it—and why homeowners insurance belongs in your plan today, not after you close.

The key takeaway

Your insurance premium is part of the real housing payment. Price it before the offer so you can confirm the home still fits your monthly budget, mortgage qualification, and cash-to-close plan.

First, what is actually happening.

Insurance has always been part of owning a home.

But over the last few years, it stopped being a small line item and started becoming a real expense for many households.

According to the Pew Research Center, 71% of U.S. homeowners say their insurance costs have gone up over the past few years. Forty-two percent say those costs have gone up a lot.

Homeowners reporting increases

71% say their costs went up

Nearly three out of every four homeowners surveyed said their homeowners insurance became more expensive.

Significant increases

42% say costs rose a lot

This is not a handful of people complaining. It is a broad affordability issue homeowners and buyers need to plan around.

That is why an old estimate, a national average, or the premium paid by the current owner may not be enough to build your budget.

Here is the part most people miss.

Premiums are still rising. I am not going to tell you otherwise.

But the pace is changing.

A 2026 report from Rate Insurance, based on more than 265,000 policy records, found that 2025 marked the first meaningful slowdown after several years of sharp increases. Average premiums rose 9.16% in 2025, compared with increases of nearly 20% in both 2023 and 2024.

Chart showing average homeowners insurance premiums rising from $1,063 in 2019 to $2,205 in 2025 while the annual rate of increase slowed to 9.16% in 2025
Average homeowners insurance premiums continued rising in 2025, but the year-over-year increase slowed to 9.16% after much steeper increases in 2023 and 2024. Source: Rate Insurance; graphic by Keeping Current Matters.
2023–2024

Nearly 20% annual increases

Premium growth was especially steep during the two years before the slowdown.

2025

9.16% annual increase

Still higher—not cheaper—but a slower climb and a possible early sign that the rate cycle is beginning to stabilize.

That does not mean premiums are getting cheaper. It means the sharp climb of the last several years may finally be leveling off.

“Small shift. Real shift. Worth knowing before you budget your next offer.”

Pat Collins

What the headlines always leave out.

Insurance is not one national number. It is local—down to your state, ZIP code, home, roof, claims history, replacement cost, coverage limits, deductible, and the insurer willing to write the policy.

Forbes Advisor’s state-by-state comparison shows just how widely average premiums can vary depending on where you buy. Natural-disaster exposure, rebuilding costs, crime, local claim patterns, and the characteristics of the property can all affect the quote.

United States map comparing average annual homeowners insurance costs by state for $350,000 in dwelling coverage
Average annual homeowners insurance costs vary widely by state. This comparison uses $350,000 in dwelling coverage and shows a national average of $2,720. Source: Forbes; graphic by Keeping Current Matters.

This is why I tell every couple I work with: get your own quote. Do not budget off a national average and hope it holds up in your ZIP code.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recommends contacting several companies, getting quotes in writing, and comparing both cost and coverage. Your lender will generally require proof of homeowners insurance before funding the loan, so the question is not whether you will need it. The question is whether you price it early enough to protect your plan.

Do this before the offer

Ask an insurance professional to quote the actual property whenever possible. A home can look affordable on the listing page and become much tighter after the property-specific insurance premium is added.

Insurance eligibility can also affect whether a home is truly a good opportunity. That is one reason I tell buyers to investigate property condition, roof age, prior claims, and insurability before calling a listing a bargain. I cover that larger offer strategy in How To Find the Best Deal Possible on a Home Right Now.

What this means for your plan.

Here is where this stops being a headline and starts becoming math you can actually use.

Insurance is part of PITI

PITI stands for principal, interest, taxes, and insurance. Those four pieces help form the full monthly housing payment used in real-world budgeting and mortgage analysis.

Under Rule 9 in our system, your total housing payment—all four pieces—should stay near 30% of your gross household income. If you are only running the numbers on principal and interest, you are underestimating the real payment.

I have watched couples get pre-approved, skip this step, and get surprised later. Do not be that couple.

Insurance also lives inside the Big 7

Under Rule 2, housing is one of the seven essential household categories that should collectively stay under 35% of take-home pay. Insurance is not a “figure it out later” cost. It is baked into that ceiling from day one.

So before you make an offer, get a real quote—not a loose estimate. Use a quote tied to the actual home and ZIP code whenever possible. That number goes straight into your PITI and Big 7 math.

Start with the complete housing payment

Include principal, interest, property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance when applicable, and homeowners association dues when applicable.

Recalculate the payment before writing the offer

Taxes and insurance can change the comfortable price range. Use the actual property information rather than relying only on an early pre-approval estimate.

Protect your buying power from existing payments

Car loans, credit cards, personal loans, and other monthly obligations also compete for room in the budget. See how those payments can quietly reduce homebuying power.

Keep reserves after closing

Do not use every available dollar to reach the closing table. Insurance deductibles, maintenance, repairs, and premium changes still exist after you receive the keys.

Price the whole payment

Know the number you will actually live with after closing.

I can help you compare the purchase price, down payment, estimated taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance, debts, and cash needed so the payment makes sense before you make an offer.

Talk With Pat

Once you have the quote, you are not necessarily stuck with it.

Insurify and NerdWallet point to several practical moves that may help lower a homeowners insurance premium. Savings, eligibility, and available discounts vary by insurer and state, so compare the total coverage—not just the lowest price.

Shop around

Get comparable written quotes from more than one company. The spread between insurers can be larger than many buyers expect.

Compare home-and-auto bundling

One carrier and multiple policies may produce a multi-policy discount, but compare the bundled total against separate policies before deciding.

Ask about every available discount

Do not assume every discount was automatically applied. Ask about claims-free history, security devices, payment method, recent purchase, renovations, and other qualifications.

Document risk-reducing upgrades

A newer roof, updated plumbing or electrical systems, storm-resistant materials, alarms, and other improvements may affect eligibility or premium discounts.

Protect your credit profile

In many states, insurers may use a credit-based insurance score when pricing coverage. The rules and effect depend on the state where the property is located.

None of this is complicated. It just has to happen before the offer and before closing—not after the payment has already surprised you.

The question you should be asking together right now.

Not only: “How much is our mortgage payment going to be?”

The better question is: What is our full monthly housing number—principal, interest, taxes, and insurance—and does it still fit inside our Big 7?

My wife and I have been on both sides of this table for 34 years—as a couple building our own life, and as professionals guiding other couples through theirs.

The couples who avoid the surprise at closing are not the lucky ones. They are the ones who priced the whole payment before they ever wrote an offer.

Get the insurance quote early. Run it through your numbers. Have the conversation with your spouse before the number shows up on a closing disclosure instead of a budget spreadsheet.

That is the difference between being surprised by your house and being in control of it.

Bottom line

Rates and prices matter. So does the down payment.

But the home is not affordable because the principal-and-interest payment fits. It is affordable when the complete housing payment fits your income, your Big 7, your reserves, and the life you want after closing.

Homeowners insurance costs are still elevated, even though the latest data shows the pace of increases may be slowing. Your quote can still vary significantly by property and location.

Price it early. Compare coverage. Put the real premium into the math. Then decide whether the home still works.

Pat Collins
Financial Coach | Mortgage Professional | Realtor
34 Years of Marriage and Real Estate — I have been on both sides of every table.

Educational disclosure: This article is for general educational purposes and is not individualized mortgage, financial, insurance, legal, tax, credit, or real estate advice. Insurance availability, underwriting, pricing, discounts, exclusions, deductibles, and the use of credit-related information vary by insurer, property, state, and individual circumstances. Mortgage qualification and housing-expense calculations vary by loan program and underwriting requirements. Consult qualified mortgage, insurance, real estate, tax, legal, and financial professionals regarding your situation.

Reference sources: Pew Research Center, Rate Insurance’s 2026 Home Insurance Trends Report announcement, Forbes Advisor, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Insurify, and NerdWallet.

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Young child smiling while holding parents’ hands during winter—symbolizing the joy and opportunity families can find when selling a home in the winter housing market.

When most people think about selling their home, they automatically picture spring the yard is green, the flowers are out, and everyone seems to be in house-hunting mode.

But here’s the truth: spring isn’t always the smartest time to sell.
In fact, selling your house this winter may actually give you a major advantage especially if you’re trying to stand out and make a confident financial move.

Let’s break down why winter might be the opportunity most homeowners overlook.

Winter Is When Your House Finally Stands Out

Every year almost without fail the number of homes for sale drops as winter approaches. Realtor.com’s data shows the same pattern year after year: inventory dips in the winter, then rises again as spring arrives.

And based on the latest numbers rolling in for 2025, we’re seeing that same trend start again.

Listings are beginning to decrease as we close out the year and if history repeats itself (which it usually does), inventory will drop even further through winter.

Here’s why this matters for you:

Line graph showing how housing inventory consistently dips in the winter months, based on data from Realtor.com.

Even with more listings than last year, we still aren’t anywhere near a “normal” market.

Compared to 2017–2019 levels, today’s housing supply is still too low.
So when winter inventory dips again, your home has less competition and more visibility.

Think of it like this:

Less competition = More attention on your home.

If you list now before everyone else rushes back into the market in spring you get ahead of the crowd.

Winter Buyers Are More Motivated Buyers

Another big advantage to selling your house this winter?

The buyers who are shopping right now are serious.

They’re not browsing because it’s fun.
They’re looking because they need to move for a job relocation, a lease ending, a life change, or a growing family.

U.S. News puts it this way:

“Buyers who brave the cold usually have a good reason they need to move and can make quick decisions.”

And with fewer homes available in winter, they have fewer options to choose from. If you price and prep your house well, there’s a good chance your home becomes the one that checks their boxes.

Motivated buyers + low inventory = stronger offers and quicker decisions.

Why Not Wait Until Spring? Why This Matters for Buyers Trying To Stretch Their Budget

Most homeowners wait to list until spring because it “feels” like the right time.
But that’s exactly why waiting could hurt you.

Spring brings more buyers – yes.
But it also brings a flood of new listings.

Suddenly, you’re competing with every homeowner who waited all winter.

Winter gives you the opposite experience:

  • Less noise
  • Less competition
  • More motivated buyers
  • A cleaner shot at standing out

Bottom Line: Winter Gives Sellers a Quiet Advantage

If you’re thinking about selling, winter may be your best opportunity to:

  • Stand out in a less crowded market

  • Attract serious, motivated buyers

  • Avoid spring competition

  • Sell with more confidence and clarity

You don’t have to wait for the “busy” season to make a smart move.
Sometimes the quiet seasons work in your favor.

If you want to understand what listing your home this winter could look like or whether it fits your financial goals connect with a trusted real estate agent in your area.

A good agent can help you make sense of the numbers and take your next step with confidence.