For more than a year, the headlines warned that home prices were headed for a crash. They did not crash. Now the latest data is showing another shift that many buyers and homeowners have not noticed yet: in more markets, prices are beginning to move higher again.

That does not mean every city is suddenly booming. It means the slowdown that shaped the past year may be reaching its floor. For couples still working toward a home, and for homeowners watching their equity, that change deserves attention.

First, where home prices have actually been.

In mid-2024, home prices were growing at roughly 7% nationally. That pace cooled significantly.

Some markets saw prices dip. Buyers gained more time to compare homes and a little more room to negotiate. Many couples I speak with decided to wait, watch the headlines, and hope for a correction that would finally make the numbers easier.

That waiting period may be ending.

The point is not that prices are about to accelerate everywhere. The point is that the direction of the market appears to be changing. Once that shift becomes obvious in the headlines, prepared buyers may find that the easiest negotiating window has already passed.

Here is what the data is showing right now.

According to Redfin data, the home-price growth rate that had been falling for more than a year appears to have turned a corner.

Expert forecasters are projecting national home prices will rise about 2.3% this year. For that forecast to hold, price growth has to strengthen during the second half of 2026. The early data suggests that process may already be underway.

Last month, more than half of major metros posted price increases. Just a few months earlier, the market was much closer to an even split between rising and falling areas.

“Fewer markets are falling. More markets are rising again. That is not just another headline. That is a change in direction.”

Pat Collins

For buyers, this matters because waiting is not only a bet on mortgage rates. It is also a bet on the future purchase price. As I explain in Buy Now or Wait? The Real Tradeoff With Mortgage Rates, a lower future rate does not automatically help if the home itself becomes more expensive.

What the national headlines always leave out.

Real estate is not national. It is local.

The national number is an average of hundreds of different markets. Some are climbing quickly. Some are still soft. Some neighborhoods can move in the opposite direction of the city around them.

The only market that matters for your decision is the market where you plan to buy or sell.

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, has pointed to stronger price acceleration in markets supported by job growth and income growth, including parts of the West and more affordable Midwest metros.

That local review should include recent comparable sales, active inventory, price reductions, days on market, and seller concessions. Those are the same market signals homeowners should understand before setting a price or choosing a timeline, which I cover in The Top 2 Things Homeowners Need To Know Before Selling.

What this means—depending on where you are.

If you are working toward buying your first home

The breathing room buyers have had over the past year—more negotiating power, more stable pricing, and fewer bidding wars in some areas—may not last forever.

If price growth picks up in your market, waiting can cost real money. Not in theory. In dollars added to the price of the next home you try to buy.

I have watched housing cycles and major financial decisions play out for decades. The couples who are ready when the market changes are usually the ones who used the slower period to get their finances aligned instead of simply waiting to see what happened.

If your DTI is still too high or your savings are not where they need to be, that is the work right now. The math is not likely to become easier simply because you wait.

If you are already in position, do not sit on that readiness without checking what is happening locally.

If you already own a home

You have likely continued building equity through the slowdown.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, projects the typical homeowner will gain about $16,000 in housing wealth this year.

That is real money. If price growth continues to strengthen, those gains may increase. Your home is not only a place to live. It can also be one of the primary vehicles your family uses to build long-term and generational wealth.

Know your estimated value. Know what you owe. Know the approximate equity available after selling costs. Then have the conversation with your spouse about what that equity is meant to do next.

It may support the down payment on another home, help reduce debt, create reserves, or strengthen retirement planning. The important part is to treat the equity as part of the larger financial picture—not as an abstract number on a website.

The question couples should be asking right now.

Do not start with: “Will home prices go up or down?”

The better question is: What is the market doing in our specific area, and are we financially positioned to move when the opportunity is right?

My wife and I have been through multiple market cycles together during 34 years of marriage. The couples who build real wealth are not the ones who call every market perfectly.

They are the ones who stay aligned, keep working the plan, and move with intention when the window opens.

This may be one of those windows.

Bottom line

Home prices did not crash the way many headlines predicted. Now the data suggests the slowdown may be turning.

Fewer large markets are declining. More metros are moving higher. National forecasts call for modest price growth, but your decision still depends on your local market and your financial readiness.

If you are buying, use this period to reduce debt, strengthen savings, understand your payment, and watch the listings where sellers may still negotiate.

If you already own, understand your equity and decide how it fits into the next chapter of your family’s financial plan.

You do not have to predict the market perfectly. You do need clarity—and a plan that allows you to act when the right opportunity appears.

Pat Collins
Financial Coach | Mortgage Professional | Realtor
34 Years of Marriage and Real Estate — I have been on both sides of every table.

Educational disclosure: This article is for general educational purposes. Housing-market conditions, property values, price trends, buyer demand, loan options, qualification standards, and homeowner equity vary by location and individual circumstances. Forecasts are not guarantees. Consult qualified real estate, mortgage, tax, legal, and financial professionals regarding your situation.

Most homeowners I talk to are not paying attention to the luxury market.

They assume that is someone else’s conversation.

But here is what I have learned in 34 years of navigating real estate, mortgages, and finances alongside couples who are trying to build something real:

A lot of people are sitting on more than they realize.

First, let me ask you something.

What is considered a luxury home in your zip code?

Most people cannot answer that.

Some are sitting on a home that qualifies and have no idea. Others assume they are in the luxury tier when they are not quite there yet.

Here is the definition: Redfin generally defines luxury homes as properties in the top 5% of their metro area’s price range. That number looks completely different depending on where you live, which is why your local pricing and market conditions matter more than a national label.

So before you read anything else, I want you to actually answer that question.

You can look it up right now. A quick Google search—“luxury home price threshold in [your city]”—will get you a ballpark. Or pull up an AI tool and ask: “What is the top 5% home price in [your zip code]?” It takes two minutes.

And the answer might change how you think about what I am about to share.

The luxury market is moving—while much of the rest is slowing.

Here is what the data shows right now.

According to Redfin’s June 2026 luxury-market report, non-luxury home sale prices were up about 1.5% year over year. That is the kind of modest growth most people are hearing about in the broader housing headlines.

But luxury homes? The median luxury sale price was up 4.7% over the same period.

That is more than three times the growth rate—during a period when many sellers are being told to keep their expectations in check.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, has also pointed to stronger activity at the upper end of the market, including an 18% year-over-year increase in sales of homes priced at $1 million or more.

And Redfin reported a national median of 49 days on market for luxury homes during the three months ending May 2026.

This is not noise. This is a real window—for the right seller, at the right moment.

“The opportunity is not simply that luxury prices are higher. It is that the top end of the market is behaving differently from the rest.”

Pat Collins

Why is this happening?

The broader market has been dealing with affordability pressure and higher mortgage rates.

Rates went up. Buyers in the mid-range got stretched. A lot of them stepped back and stayed on the sidelines.

High-end buyers tend to be less sensitive to that pressure. They may have more assets, more liquidity, and more flexibility to keep moving. And when there are fewer sellers competing for buyer attention, a well-positioned home has a better opportunity to stand out.

Motivated buyers. Rising prices. Faster movement.

Those three things do not align often. Right now, they are showing up together at the top of the market.

What this means for your family’s wealth.

My wife and I have navigated over three decades of decisions exactly like this one together.

And the one thing I know is this:

The couples who build real wealth are not always the ones who made the perfect move at the perfect time.

They are the ones who recognized the window—and made a decision together, with clear eyes, instead of letting it pass by default.

If your home is in the luxury tier for your area, this may be one of those windows.

That does not mean you need to rush. It means you need to understand your pricing, timing, and position, so the decision you make is intentional—not made in the dark and not made under pressure.

Start here.

You do not need to make a decision today. You do need to know what position you are in.

If you are in the top 5% for your area, the conversation with a local real estate professional is worth having now—while the luxury market is showing strength.

And if you are not sure where to start, that is exactly what I am here for.

Pat Collins
Financial Coach | Mortgage Professional | Realtor
34 Years of Marriage and Real Estate—I have been on both sides of every table.

Educational disclosure: This article is for general educational purposes only. Housing-market data changes over time and can vary significantly by metro area, neighborhood, property type, and price range. National luxury-market trends do not guarantee a particular selling price, offer, or timeline for an individual property. Real estate, mortgage, tax, legal, and financial decisions should be evaluated based on your specific circumstances. Market figures referenced above include Redfin data for the three months ending May 31, 2026.