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Everyone Keeps Asking Who Has the Upper Hand Right Now. Here Is the Only Number That Actually Answers It.
Buyers want leverage. Sellers want top dollar. The national headline cannot tell you who actually has the advantage where you live. Months’ supply can.
By Pat Collins
6 min read
Updated August 18, 2026
sets the leverage
The national number is 4.6 months. Your local number is the one that matters.
If you are buying or selling right now, you have probably asked the same question everyone else is asking.
Who has the upper hand?
Buyers want leverage. Sellers want top dollar. And the national headlines love to hand out one clean answer.
Neither side is fully right. And neither side is fully wrong. It depends entirely on where you live.
I want to walk you through the number that actually answers this question, and why the national headline is the wrong place to look for your answer.
Months’ supply is the clearest shortcut for understanding who has leverage. Under 4 months generally favors sellers, 4 to 6 months is more balanced, and over 6 months generally gives buyers more negotiating room.
First, What Actually Decides Who Has the Upper Hand.
There is one metric that tells you who is holding the leverage in any market. It is called months’ supply.
It measures how long it would take to sell every home currently listed, at the current pace of sales, if no additional homes came onto the market.
Under 4 months
Not enough homes relative to buyer demand. Sellers generally have more pricing power and buyers may face more competition.
4–6 months / Over 6
Four to six months is generally balanced. Above six months, buyers typically gain more room to negotiate price, credits, repairs, and terms.
That is the whole framework. Simple. And it is the number every agent should be handing you before you write an offer or set a listing price.
Here Is What the Data Is Showing Right Now.
Nationally, the National Association of Realtors puts months’ supply at 4.6. That lands the country as a whole in balanced territory.
That is a meaningful shift after years when the market leaned heavily toward sellers.
Some are calling this the most buyer-friendly national market in nearly six years.
But that is a national average. And a national average is built by blending together hundreds of local markets that do not look anything alike.
Redfin’s metro-level data shows that clearly. Some markets sit firmly in buyer territory. Others are still tilted toward sellers. Many fall somewhere in between.
The national market sits in the more balanced 4-to-6-month range.
Scarcer inventory usually supports firmer pricing and faster buyer decisions.
More available inventory can create room to negotiate price, concessions, repairs, or other terms.
What the Headlines Always Leave Out.
Real estate has never been one national market. It is local, down to the neighborhood, price range, and property type.
The 4.6 months’ supply number is useful for understanding the overall direction of the country. It is close to useless for deciding what to offer on one specific house, or what to list yours for.
This is why I tell every couple I work with the same thing: stop reading the national number and start finding out what months’ supply looks like where you actually live. That is one phone call to a local agent, not a national headline.
The same principle applies to home-price trends in your local market. National movement gives you context. Your city, neighborhood, condition, price point, and buyer pool determine the strategy.
And if you are buying, the local balance helps determine whether you should chase the newest listing or look for homes that have been sitting longer and may offer more negotiating room.
Same overall housing market. Very different experiences.
That is why local months’ supply matters more than the headline.
What This Means For Your Plan.
If you are buying:
Find out your local months’ supply before you write an offer. If your market is still tilted toward sellers, that changes how fast you move and how you structure the offer. If your market has shifted toward buyers, you may have real room to negotiate price, credits, repairs, or timing — and you should not be afraid to ask.
That is where the broader strategy in finding the best deal possible on a home becomes useful. Leverage is not only about lowering the price. A seller credit, repair, rate buydown, or more favorable term may solve a bigger problem for your budget.
Either way, negotiating power only helps you if your own numbers are ready to act on it. Under Rule 8 in our system, keep your DTI at 35% or below before you go to a lender. Under Rule 6, have at least 10% down, ideally 20% when the numbers support it and you want to eliminate conventional PMI. Leverage in the market does you no good if you are not prepared to use it.
A slower market can also give you more time to compare homes and make a confident decision instead of reacting to every new listing.
If you are selling:
That same local number tells you how to price and how long to expect your home to sit. A market with a lower months’ supply can support a firmer price. A market with more supply may mean pricing sharp from day one, planning for a longer runway, and being realistic about concessions.
This is exactly why pricing and timing matter before you list. You do not want to price your home for last year’s seller advantage if your neighborhood has already shifted.
Under Rule 11 in our system, that runway is also why a full emergency fund matters if you are selling and buying at the same time. A home that takes longer to sell should never turn into two mortgage payments you cannot comfortably carry.
If both transactions are happening together, review whether buying first or selling first puts you in the stronger financial position. Your equity, DTI, reserves, local days on market, and the risk of overlapping payments should all be part of that decision.
Market leverage only works when your own numbers are ready.
If you are buying, selling, or doing both, we can review the mortgage side of the plan — income, debts, DTI, down payment, reserves, current equity, and the payment you actually want to live with after closing.
Talk With PatThe Question You Should Be Asking Together Right Now.
Not: Who has the upper hand nationally?
The real question is: What does months’ supply look like in our specific zip code, and are we positioned to act on whatever that number tells us?
My wife and I have bought, sold, and helped couples do both through markets that leaned every direction in 34 years of marriage and real estate. The couples who came out ahead were never the ones who knew the national trend. They were the ones who knew their own market, and had their own numbers ready before they needed them.
Call a local agent and ask for your actual months’ supply. Then have the conversation with your spouse about what that number means for your plan.
That is how you turn a market headline into a decision you can actually use.
Educational disclosure: This article is for general educational purposes and is not individualized mortgage, financial, legal, tax, insurance, credit, appraisal, or real estate advice. Months’ supply, buyer demand, seller leverage, concessions, prices, days on market, mortgage-insurance requirements, and financing options vary by location, property, market conditions, loan program, and individual circumstances. National figures should not be treated as a substitute for current local market data or a professional property analysis. Consult qualified mortgage, real estate, legal, tax, insurance, appraisal, and financial professionals regarding your situation.
Reference sources: Keeping Current Matters — Who Has the Upper Hand in Today’s Housing Market? and National Association of Realtors — Existing-Home Sales.
Pat Collins
I have spent decades in business, sales, real estate, and helping people solve problems. My goal is to help homebuyers and homeowners understand the numbers, compare their choices, and make mortgage decisions that support the life they want after closing.
When most people think about selling their home, they automatically picture spring the yard is green, the flowers are out, and everyone seems to be in house-hunting mode.
But here’s the truth: spring isn’t always the smartest time to sell.
In fact, selling your house this winter may actually give you a major advantage especially if you’re trying to stand out and make a confident financial move.
Let’s break down why winter might be the opportunity most homeowners overlook.
Winter Is When Your House Finally Stands Out
Every year almost without fail the number of homes for sale drops as winter approaches. Realtor.com’s data shows the same pattern year after year: inventory dips in the winter, then rises again as spring arrives.
And based on the latest numbers rolling in for 2025, we’re seeing that same trend start again.
Listings are beginning to decrease as we close out the year and if history repeats itself (which it usually does), inventory will drop even further through winter.
Here’s why this matters for you:
Even with more listings than last year, we still aren’t anywhere near a “normal” market.
Compared to 2017–2019 levels, today’s housing supply is still too low.
So when winter inventory dips again, your home has less competition and more visibility.
Think of it like this:
Less competition = More attention on your home.
If you list now before everyone else rushes back into the market in spring you get ahead of the crowd.
Winter Buyers Are More Motivated Buyers
Another big advantage to selling your house this winter?
The buyers who are shopping right now are serious.
They’re not browsing because it’s fun.
They’re looking because they need to move for a job relocation, a lease ending, a life change, or a growing family.
U.S. News puts it this way:
“Buyers who brave the cold usually have a good reason they need to move and can make quick decisions.”
And with fewer homes available in winter, they have fewer options to choose from. If you price and prep your house well, there’s a good chance your home becomes the one that checks their boxes.
Motivated buyers + low inventory = stronger offers and quicker decisions.
Why Not Wait Until Spring? Why This Matters for Buyers Trying To Stretch Their Budget
Most homeowners wait to list until spring because it “feels” like the right time.
But that’s exactly why waiting could hurt you.
Spring brings more buyers – yes.
But it also brings a flood of new listings.
Suddenly, you’re competing with every homeowner who waited all winter.
Winter gives you the opposite experience:
- Less noise
- Less competition
- More motivated buyers
- A cleaner shot at standing out
Bottom Line: Winter Gives Sellers a Quiet Advantage
If you’re thinking about selling, winter may be your best opportunity to:
Stand out in a less crowded market
Attract serious, motivated buyers
Avoid spring competition
Sell with more confidence and clarity
You don’t have to wait for the “busy” season to make a smart move.
Sometimes the quiet seasons work in your favor.
If you want to understand what listing your home this winter could look like or whether it fits your financial goals connect with a trusted real estate agent in your area.
A good agent can help you make sense of the numbers and take your next step with confidence.
